European nations are rushing to bolster their defences amid Russia threat and uncertainty of US support
France will this week become the latest EU country to set out plans to expand its army, with Emmanuel Macron expected to announce on Thursday that military service will be restored C albeit on a voluntary basis C nearly 30 years after the end of conscription.
In the face of Russias military threat and uncertainty over the USs commitment to defending its transatlantic allies, Europe is rushing to bolster its defence industry and its deployment capability after radically cutting them back since the cold war.
Despite significant losses in its war on Ukraine, Russia is perceived by European militaries as a potential direct threat within two to five years. Meanwhile, Washington has made it clear that it expects its EU allies to take care of much more of their own defence.
But if the issue of defence industry investment is chiefly economic, the question of how to significantly expand the number of full-time armed services members is also very much societal C and is leading to heated debates across several countries.
Fabien Mandon, Frances top general and chief of staff of the armed forces, prompted media and political uproar last week by saying the country must be ready to lose its children since Russia was preparing for a confrontation with our countries by 2030.
The thinktank wrote in a recent report : Most European armies struggle to meet their recruitment targets and retain trained personnel, as well as to generate a sufficient reserve.
Sophia Besch, a defence specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said growing military personnel shortfalls were forcing more and more western European countries to explore various kinds of conscription models.
Training cycles will also need to be intensified for reservists, which some countries need to reactivate in large numbers, Besch said. For countries without a tradition of military preparedness, all this poses a politically and socially sensitive challenge.
Several EU countries have some form of conscription, led by the Nordics and Baltics where total defence underpins military thinking and draft intakes are widening. Finland has one of the worlds largest reserves, based on universal male conscription.
Sweden reintroduced selective conscription C with mandatory registration for men and women, but a strict selection process that takes into account several factors including physical fitness and youths willingness to serve C in 2018.
Denmarks conscription system was extended to women and lengthened to 11 months from four in June. Estonia has universal male conscription, while Latvia and Lithuania, like Denmark, select conscripts by lottery if there are not enough volunteers.
Elsewhere, Croatia, which abolished mandatory military service 18 years ago, recently restored conscription, while Poland is working on a plan to prepare large-scale military training for every adult male in an effort to double the size of its army.
While recent polls have found that majorities in several European countries, including Germany, France and Poland, support some form of mandatory military service, other countries have so far steered clear of conscription. Germanys government this month decided against a system of compulsory military service after a bitter debate, opting for a voluntary model instead C but if that fails to find the numbers, it will reconsider a compulsory nationwide call-up.
Frances proposed scheme is unlikely to include reintroducing the mandatory military service abolished in 1997. Several countries offer perks such as cash bonuses, preferential access to public sector jobs and higher education places to military service volunteers.
Army leaders generally say that volunteers are more professional and motivated than conscripts, but volunteer armies are expensive. Conscripts not only make up the numbers of active service personnel, but provide a large pool of potential reservists.
Compulsory military service, however, is no panacea and can be counterproductive. In countries where there is domestic resistance, mandatory conscription could even undermine public resolve to shore up the national defences, Besch argued .
Most successful European conscription models now rely on a strong degree of volunteerism C but instilling a willingness to serve in a population that does not have a recent history of military service takes time and sustained domestic debate.
在俄罗斯威胁及美国支持不确定性的背景下，欧洲各国正加紧加强防御力量
法国将于本周成为欧盟最新一个宣布扩军计划的国家。总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙预计在周四宣布恢复兵役制度——尽管是基于自愿原则——这距离法国废除义务兵役制已近30年。
面对俄罗斯的军事威胁以及美国对保卫跨大西洋盟友承诺的不确定性，欧洲正急于加强其国防工业和部署能力——自冷战结束以来，这些领域曾遭到大幅削减。
尽管俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中遭受重大损失，但欧洲军方仍认为其可能在两到五年内构成直接威胁。与此同时，华盛顿已明确表示，期望欧盟盟友承担更多自主防务责任。
尽管国防工业投资问题主要涉及经济层面，但如何大幅增加全职武装部队人员数量这一问题同样具有深刻的社会性——这一议题正在多个国家引发激烈辩论。
法军总参谋长、武装部队最高将领法比安·芒东上周引发媒体和政治哗然，他声称由于俄罗斯正“准备在2030年前与我们这些国家对抗”，法国必须做好“牺牲子民”的准备。
该智库在最近的一份报告中写道：“大多数欧洲军队难以完成征兵目标、留住训练有素的士兵，也难以建立足够的后备力量。”
卡内基国际和平基金会防务专家索菲娅·贝施表示，"日益严重的兵员短缺"正迫使越来越多的西欧国家探索各类征兵模式。
贝施表示："预备役人员的训练周期也需加强，部分国家需要大规模重启预备役制度。对于缺乏军事备战传统的国家而言，这一切将带来政治和社会层面的敏感挑战。"
多个欧盟国家实行某种形式的征兵制，其中北欧和波罗的海国家处于领先地位。这些国家以“总体防御”为军事思想基础，并不断扩大征兵规模。芬兰实行普遍男性义务兵役制，拥有全球规模最大的预备役部队之一。
瑞典于2018年重新实行选择性征兵制——要求男女均需强制登记，但会通过严格筛选流程，综合考虑体能、青年"服役意愿"等多重因素。
丹麦于6月将征兵制范围扩大至女性，并将服役期从4个月延长至11个月。爱沙尼亚实行男性普遍征兵制，而拉脱维亚和立陶宛则与丹麦类似，在志愿兵不足时通过抽签方式选拔应征者。
在其他地区，18年前废除义务兵役制的克罗地亚近期恢复了征兵制度；与此同时，波兰正着手制定计划，拟对所有成年男性开展大规模军事训练，以期实现军队规模翻倍的目标。
尽管近期民调显示，包括德国、法国和波兰在内的多个欧洲国家多数民众支持某种形式的义务兵役制，但其他国家迄今仍避免实行征兵制。德国政府本月经过激烈辩论后，决定放弃强制兵役制度，转而采用自愿模式。不过，若该模式无法招募到足够兵员，德国将重新考虑实施全国性强制征兵。
法国提出的方案不太可能恢复1997年废除的义务兵役制。目前多国为志愿服役者提供现金奖励、优先获得公共部门职位及高等教育名额等优待政策。
军方领导人普遍认为，志愿兵比义务兵更专业且更具积极性，但志愿兵役制成本高昂。义务兵役制不仅能补充现役部队的兵力缺口，还可为预备役部队储备大量潜在兵源。
然而，义务兵役制并非万能良药，甚至可能适得其反。贝施认为：“在国内存在抵制情绪的国家，强制征兵甚至可能削弱公众巩固国防的决心。”
目前欧洲最成功的征兵模式在很大程度上依赖于志愿原则——但对于近期没有兵役传统的人群而言，培养其服役意愿需要时间以及持续不断的国内讨论。